The Art of Forecasting
Stop guessing and start predicting. Learn the systematic habits of 'superforecasters' to turn uncertainty into calculated probability.
Like Duolingo, but for The Art of Forecasting. Tomo turns the whole topic into a game you play five minutes a day, until it actually sticks.
A short one: 12 levels across 2 sections, about 24 minutes end to end, roughly 5 days at five minutes a day. It moves through The Forecaster's Mindset and Refining the Prediction. It starts from scratch.
Free forever · No credit card · iPhone & Android
Key ideas in The Art of Forecasting
- The limitation of binary thinking in forecasting
- The value of numerical precision over vague language
- 0% and 100% are rarely used because they represent impossible certainty
- The 0-100 scale allows for fine-tuned adjustments as new information arrives
- A 70% prediction means the 'wrong' outcome is expected to happen 3 out of 10 times
- The quality of a prediction is based on the logic used at the time, not just the final result
- Evaluating prediction quality based on probability, not just the final result
- Naming your doubt helps you spot what specific news would change your mind
- Using the 0-100 scale to express confidence levels
- Predictions should be updated immediately when 'needle-moving' information appears
- Identifying information that changes a forecast
- The Inside View focuses on unique personal strengths and specific plans
- The base rate provides a statistical anchor for a prediction
- Focusing on 'why this time is different' often leads to over-optimism
- Historical averages are more reliable than personal intuition
- A reference class must be broad enough to have data but specific enough to be relevant
You've tried the other tabs
Thirty open tabs. Four facts you actually kept.
You watched. You nodded. By Sunday it was gone.
One answer, then back to scrolling.
Eight weeks. You meant to finish. You didn't.
Tomo gives The Art of Forecasting the Duolingo treatment: levels, streaks, and quick quizzes that test what you just learned. That game loop is what the tabs above never had, so it's the one you actually finish.
Here's what playing it feels like
A real question from this course. Take your best guess.
Why is saying a project 'might' finish on time often a problem for a team?
Get it right to open this lesson and 11 more in the app.
How to learn The Art of Forecasting, step by step
Go in order. 12 short levels across 2 sections, about 24 minutes in all, five minutes a day.
- 1
The Forecaster's Mindset
- Thinking in Percentages
- The Power of the Outside View
- 2
Refining the Prediction
- Updating on New Information
- Measuring Your Accuracy
2 sections · 4 units · 12 levels. Built to play, not to enroll.
Questions about The Art of Forecasting
How do I learn The Art of Forecasting?
Go in order: start with The Forecaster's Mindset, then Refining the Prediction. On Tomo that's 12 short levels, about 24 minutes in all, played five minutes a day. Start free and play the first level in under a minute.
Is there a Duolingo-style app for The Art of Forecasting?
Yes. Tomo works like Duolingo: short daily lessons, streaks and quick quizzes. The Art of Forecasting is one of its free courses, and you can type any other topic to get a course of your own.
Is The Art of Forecasting free?
Yes. The Art of Forecasting is playable on Tomo's free plan, which doesn't expire. No credit card, no waitlist. Download the app and start your first lesson.
How long does it take to learn The Art of Forecasting?
12 levels across 2 sections, about 24 minutes of play in total. It's built for five minutes a day, so you finish it a little at a time instead of all at once.
Do I need any background to start The Art of Forecasting?
No. It's pitched at a beginner level, so it starts where you are and builds up. If you can tap a phone, you can start.
Tomo is in ChatGPT
Tomo is also a ChatGPT plugin: the same playable courses, built and played inside your chat.
Add Tomo to ChatGPT- What to ask
- “Make me a Tomo course on black holes.” “Turn this chat into a Tomo course.”
- What you get
- Quick questions with instant feedback, hearts and stars, ready to play in about a minute.
- Where it goes
- No sign-up to start. Connect your Tomo account and your streak carries on in the app.
You pick the voice
The Art of Forecasting is taught in the Bestie style: your friend who just gets it. Want a different feel? In the app you can spin up the same topic in any of Tomo's teaching styles. Same facts, totally different vibe.
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Start The Art of Forecasting today.
Download Tomo, search The Art of Forecasting, and play your first lesson in under a minute.